Economic Forecasts

April 02, 2018

Now gaining steam on an annual basis, pay increases will pick up to 3.0% by the end of 2018.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP growth will increase from 2.3% at the end of 2017 to 2.9% by the end of 2018.

Interest Rates. 10-year T-notes will be at 3.0% and bank prime rate will be at 5.25% by the end of 2018.

Unemployment. Unemployment rate will decrease from 4.1% at the end of 2017 to 3.8% by the end of 2018. Places where worker shortages will be acute, with unemployment below 3.0%:

  • Metro areas in Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.
  • New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.
  • Nashville and Knoxville, Tennessee.
  • Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio, Texas.

Inflation. Inflation will increase from 2.1% at the end of 2017 to 2.5% by the end of 2018.

Corporate Earnings. Corporate earnings of large firms will increase 18% in 2018, and 10% in 2019. Only utilities and real estate will remain weak.

Business Spending. Business spending will increase 7% in 2018, boosted by tax breaks and faster growth at home and abroad.